Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji. Paul G. Buchanan Change of Guard Ceremony, Government House, Suva. Republic of Fiji Military Forces hand over guardship to Republic of Fiji Police. Photo: Republic of Fiji Military Forces (http://www.rfmf.mil.fj/news/Change%20of%20Guards.html) . Revelations that the Fijian military-bureaucratic regime has rejected important aspects of the draft constitution submitted by [...]
Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, January 17th, 2013
Analytic Brief: Elite Exodus as a political indicator.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, November 20th, 2012
Analytic Brief: Elite Exodus as a political indicator. Analysis – By Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: In an earlier brief 36th Parallel Assessments highlighted the forecasting potential of capital flight. In that brief difference was made between foreign and domestic capital flight as indicators of regime instability. In this brief attention shifts to an overlapping phenomenon that [...]
Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy and the Southwestern Pacific.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, September 21st, 2012
Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy in the Southwestern Pacific. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: 36th Parallel Assessments Founding Partner Dr. Paul G. Buchanan has been traveling in the US for a month. He has had an opportunity to observe the US election campaign from both coasts, and in this brief discusses the [...]
Analysis: A different sort of BRIC (Australia in comparative perspective).
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, August 14th, 2012
Analysis: A different type of BRIC (Australia in comparative perspective). In this installment of the 36th Parallel series of analytic briefs, the focus is on Australia compared to other rising middle powers, including three of the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Although it may irk the okkers, Australia can [...]
Selwyn Manning Interviews Coalition For Democracy In Fiji’s Nik Naidu on Fiji’s Slow Walk Back To Democracy
Written by Selwyn Manning on Tuesday, August 7th, 2012
Fiji: Selwyn Manning Interviews Coalition For Democracy In Fiji’s Nik Naidu on Fiji’s Slow Walk Back To Democracy This Week: Selwyn Manning interviews Nik Naidu on Fiji’s Slow Walk Back To Democracy – Beatson Interview, Triangle TV, August 6 2012. Nothing is ever very predictable about the political situation in Fiji – except its unpredictability. [...]
Deconstructing New Zealand Foreign Policy
Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, August 1st, 2012
Deconstructing New Zealand Foreign Policy. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: New Zealand’s post-Cold War foreign policy has been characterized by a pragmatic orientation in which matters of principle are balanced against objective assessments of interest. In recent years the commitment to the “principled but pragmatic” foreign policy has come into question, as has [...]
Analytic Brief: Managing Policy Fade
Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, July 19th, 2012
Analytic Brief: Managing Policy Fade* From time to time 36th Parallel Assessments offers analytic briefs on subjects of diplomatic, geopolitical and strategic interest. This week’s topic is policy fade. Analysis – By Paul G. Buchanan. Deployment of Fijian soldiers and police as UN peacekeepers after the 2006 military coup in that country is a good [...]
Fiji’s Military Regime Deploys More Personnel To UN Ops Than Australia, Canada, New Zealand Combined
Written by Selwyn Manning on Friday, July 13th, 2012
Fiji’s Military Regime Deploys More Personnel To UN Ops Than Australia, Canada, New Zealand Combined Dispatch/Forecast – by Selwyn Manning. Since the 2006 Fiji coup Commodore Voreqe (Frank) Bainimarama’s military-led government has remained fully engaged with the United Nations while incrementally increasing the number of troops and police it contributes to UN peacekeeping operations to [...]
Analytic Brief: Political Learning and the PNG Elections.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, July 6th, 2012
Analytic Brief: Political Learning and the PNG Elections. From time to time 36th Parallel Assessments publishes broadly conceptual or theoretical essays as in-house background that can be used to guide assessments. These are not meant to be detailed or comprehensive. Instead, they are designed to frame analysis of the subjects under discussion.In this analytic brief the [...]
Assessment: Partners But Not Allies – New Zealand and the US Sign The Washington Declaration
Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, June 27th, 2012
Assessment: Partners But Not Allies – New Zealand and the US Sign The Washington Declaration Assessment/Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. On June 20 New Zealand Defense Minister Jonathan Coleman and US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta signed the Washington Declaration, which specifies priority areas of cooperation between the militaries of both countries.The Washington Declaration [...]
Interview: 95bFM’s Simon Maude IVs Selwyn Manning On The Washington Declaration
Written by Selwyn Manning on Thursday, June 21st, 2012
Interview: 95bFM’s Simon Maude IVs Selwyn Manning On New Zealand Signing the USA’s Washington Declaration Military Pact 95bFM The Wire Counter-Clockwise Bulletin – Recorded live on 21/06/12: Main Points – On Wednesday June 20, New Zealand’s Minister of Defence Jonathan Coleman met with the United States’ secretary of defense Leon Panetta at the Pentagon in [...]
State of the Nation Brief: Samoa at 50
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, June 12th, 2012
State of the Nation Brief: Samoa at 50 Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. Samoa (also known as Western Samoa) celebrated 50 years of independence from New Zealand last month. Located between 13.35 degrees and 14.9 degrees South and 169.35 and 172.20 degrees West and consisting of nine islands, it is the oldest of [...]
Interview: 95bFM’s Simon Maude IVs Selwyn Manning On The Implications Of New Zealand Signing A NATO Security Pact
Written by Selwyn Manning on Thursday, June 7th, 2012
Interview: 95bFM’s Simon Maude IVs Selwyn Manning On The Implications Of New Zealand Signing A NATO Security Pact 95bFM’s The Wire – Recorded live on 7/06/12: Selwyn Manning & Simon Maude discuss the implications of New Zealand signing a NATO security pact titled Individual Partnership Cooperation Programme (IPCP). Background: This week New Zealand Prime Minister [...]
Analysis: New Zealand’s United Nations Security Council Bid
Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, May 31st, 2012
Analysis: New Zealand’s United Nations Security Council Bid. 36th Parallel Assessments – Analysis By Dr Paul G. Buchanan Introduction:On May 24, 2012the foreign ministers of the United States of America and New Zealand met for bilateral meetings after the conclusion of the NATO Summit in Chicago. Afghanistan, Syria and Myanmar were topics of discussion, but [...]
Weekly Assessment: Intelligence Analytics
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, May 11th, 2012
Weekly Assessment: Intelligence Analytics Assessment – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. From time to time 36th Parallel Assessments will offer intelligence analytic briefs. These are quick, short-hand tools that give a rapid grasp on a given subject. The analytic brief is not meant to be a substitute for a full intelligence assessment. Instead, it serves [...]
The Papua New Guinea Crisis – Australia and New Zealand’s Challenge
Written by Selwyn Manning on Thursday, May 3rd, 2012
The Papua New Guinea Crisis – Australia and New Zealand’s Challenge Weekly Analysis – By Selwyn Manning. As Papua New Guinea struggles to maintain order in the face of two clashing political factions, its two southern neighbors Australia and New Zealand are compelled to tread a soft diplomatic line rather than risk destroying progressive rapprochement with [...]
Flash-Back (Video): Tonga – Class Restored – October 31 2007
Written by Selwyn Manning on Monday, March 19th, 2012
Flash-Back (Video): Tonga – Class Restored – October 31 2007 36th Parallel apologizes for the variable audio quality. Part 1 of Tonga – Class Restored (fifteen minutes). Part 2 of Tonga – Class Restored (six minutes). Produced in October 2007 by Selwyn Manning, broadcast on Stratos TV and webcast on Scoop.co.nz. See Also: (Video) The [...]