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A bridge too far.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, November 21st, 2018

Jiaozhou Bay/Qingdao-Haiwan Bridge, China. Photo: Feel the Planet (   The Labour-led government in New Zealand has settled on a new mantra when it comes to addressing the US-China rivalry. It claims that New Zealand is ideally situated to become a bridge between the two great powers and an honest broker when it comes to […]

Confronting Sharp Power.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, October 24th, 2018

  Source:¬†   International relations is about exercising power to achieve objectives on the global stage. The actors that do so are states, companies, non-governmental organizations or criminal and non-state political actors acting directly or as proxies. The tools they employ have traditionally included hard power, which is the threat and use of diplomatic, economic […]

Analytic Brief: Influence Operations, Targeted Interventions and Intelligence Gathering: A Primer.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Saturday, September 23rd, 2017

Revelations of Chinese influence operations in Australia and New Zealand, and the ongoing sequels to the Russian “interference” in the 2016 US election, have caused outcry and concern amongst policy-makers and public alike. Beyond the xenophobic aspects to fears of the spectre of a “Yellow Peril” emerging in the Antipodes (a fear that we do […]

Brazil enters the military airlift market, with New Zealand as a target.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, April 12th, 2017

¬†Photo:   Military aviation has become a global business that transcends strike forces and combat-only platforms. Flexibility in non-military missions such as search and rescue, firefighting and medical evacuation are now added to traditional military airlift missions like troop and weapons transport, airdrop and long-range patrol, surveillance and intelligence gathering. In this analytic brief […]

From failure, opportunity beckons.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, January 25th, 2017

The Trump administration’s decision to withdraw the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, a multinational trade and investment accord involving eleven Pacific Rim countries other than the US, is seen as a blow to hopes for a freer flow of goods and services in the Asia-Pacific Region. In this analytic brief we look at the potential opportunities presented […]

Analytic Brief: Fiji’s strategic pivot.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, January 27th, 2016

  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Fijian Prime Minister Voreque “Frank” Bainimarama. Source: Fiji Ministry of Foreign Affairs Last week Fiji took delivery of a shipment of Russian weapons that were “donated” by Russia pursuant to a bilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed in February 2015. The Fijians say that the weapons are […]

A hard rain is a’gonna fall.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Saturday, May 23rd, 2015

Although 36th Parallel Assessments is loathe to prognosticate on fluid situations and current events,we have been thinking about how the conflict in Iraq has been going. Althoughwe do not believe that the Islamic State (IS) is anywhere close to being the global threat that it is portrayed to be in the West, we do believe […]

Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, January 17th, 2013

Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji. Paul G. Buchanan Change of Guard Ceremony, Government House, Suva. Republic of Fiji Military Forces hand over guardship to Republic of Fiji Police. Photo: Republic of Fiji Military Forces ( .   Revelations that the Fijian military-bureaucratic regime has rejected important aspects of the draft constitution submitted by […]

RNZ Interview: Paul Buchanan IVed On Radio New Zealand On An Investigation Into The GCSB

Written by Selwyn Manning on Tuesday, September 25th, 2012

RNZ Interview: Paul Buchanan IVed On Radio New Zealand On An Investigation Into The GCSB RNZ Report: With Paul Buchanan – Security and Intelligence Analyst, and Nicky Hager – Investigative Journalist and Author, whose 1996 book “Secret Power – New Zealand’s role in the international spy network” detailed the surveillance system, ECHELON, used at the […]

Radio Australia Interview: Paul Buchanan On US looks to NZ to help counter China

Written by Selwyn Manning on Monday, September 24th, 2012

This week the United States’ Defence Secretary Leon Panetta visited New Zealand after holding bilateral meetings with the People’s Republic of China and Japan. Panetta met with New Zealand’s Defence Minister Jonathan Coleman and announced how the US and NZ are progressing their military and defence ties. Panetta also raised how the US is willing […]

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