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Weekly Assessment

Analytic Brief: Influence Operations, Targeted Interventions and Intelligence Gathering: A Primer.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Saturday, September 23rd, 2017

Revelations of Chinese influence operations in Australia and New Zealand, and the ongoing sequels to the Russian “interference” in the 2016 US election, have caused outcry and concern amongst policy-makers and public alike. Beyond the xenophobic aspects to fears of the spectre of a “Yellow Peril” emerging in the Antipodes (a fear that we do […]

Analytic Brief: Foreign Policy Realignment, Issue Linkage and Institutional Lag.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, July 15th, 2015

   Sometimes there is more to the picture. Forward. This analytic brief is derived from an ongoing study of South Pacific intelligence communities. There are numerous facets to the study, one of which is intelligence alliances and networks. The brief highlights three undervalued concepts in foreign policy practice and offers some general observations about why […]

Analytic Brief: Transitional Dilemmas.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Sunday, March 16th, 2014

Analytic Brief: Transitional Dilemmas. Paul G. Buchanan Military handover to first constitutional government, Lesotho, June 6 2012. Photo: UN Development Program. Transitions from military-bureaucratic rule have been a salient characteristic of contemporary political dynamics. The desire to return to the barracks and seek legitimation push military-bureaucratic authoritarians towards holding elections as a means of devolving […]

Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, January 17th, 2013

Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji. Paul G. Buchanan Change of Guard Ceremony, Government House, Suva. Republic of Fiji Military Forces hand over guardship to Republic of Fiji Police. Photo: Republic of Fiji Military Forces (http://www.rfmf.mil.fj/news/Change%20of%20Guards.html) .   Revelations that the Fijian military-bureaucratic regime has rejected important aspects of the draft constitution submitted by […]

Analytic Brief: Issue Linkage in Foreign Policy.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, December 19th, 2012

Negotiations to establish the Transpacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Program (RCEP), both multinational trade agreements involving Asia-Pacific countries but with the former led by the US and the latter led by China (with each excluding the other from their respective negotiating blocs), brings attention to an important concept in foreign affairs: […]

Analytic Brief: Political Fratricide.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Monday, November 26th, 2012

Analytic Brief: Political Fratricide. Paul G. Buchanan “Fratricide.” Reza Karimi. (Source: www.iranianpainting.com/fratricide.htm) Analytic Brief: Political Fratricide. Paul G. Buchanan Introduction: In light of recent events involving the New Zealand Labour Party, this brief explores the phenomenon known as political fratricide and its sub-set, party fratricide. Political fratricide is the tearing apart of a political movement or […]

Assessment Brief: Indian-Australian strategic co-operation in the early 21st century.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, October 31st, 2012

Assessment Brief: Indian-Australian strategic co-operation in the early 21st century. Balaji Chandramohan and Paul G. Buchanan Introduction. In recent years Australia and India have assumed a greater role in international affairs, emerging as regional powers with great power potential. Changes in the international environment, particularly the rise of China as a common source of concern […]

Paul G. Buchanan interviewed on The Nation regarding potential Chinese cyber espionage and New Zealand’s ability to defend against it.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Sunday, October 14th, 2012

Paul G. Buchanan interviewed on The Nation regarding potential Chinese cyber espionage and New Zealand’s ability to defend against it. This week the US launched a fresh attack on Chinese telecommunication companies. A congressional committee issued a warning to companies in the US, saying Huawei and ZTE may be a front for Chinese spying, and […]

Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy and the Southwestern Pacific.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, September 21st, 2012

Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy in the Southwestern Pacific. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: 36th Parallel Assessments Founding Partner Dr. Paul G. Buchanan has been traveling in the US for a month. He has had an opportunity to observe the US election campaign from both coasts, and in this brief discusses the […]

Risk Assessment: Selling sovereignty and declining responsibility. Flags of Convenience in the South Pacific.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, August 28th, 2012

Risk Assessment: Selling sovereignty and declining responsibility. Flags of Convenience in the South Pacific. Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: One of the solutions to the problem of revenue generation in resource-poor states such as the small island countries of the South Pacific is found in the sale of tokens of sovereignty. Tokens […]

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