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	<title>36th Parallel Assessments (NZ)</title>
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	<link>https://36th-parallel.com</link>
	<description>Pacific regional security intelligence forecasting and assessments</description>
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	<item>
		<title>Military Extortion as Coercive Diplomacy.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2026/01/07/military-extortion-as-coercive-diplomacy/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2026 21:41:06 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latest Assessments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lead]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Venezuela]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127225</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Source: Anonymous on X.com. The lethal theatre of the absurd that has been the Trump administration’s sabre rattling performances in the Central American basin over the last few months culminated with the military attack on Venezuela and the kidnapping of its president and his wife in the early hours of Saturday morning, Caracas time. The ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Preventive versus pre-emptive strikes.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2025/07/01/preventive-versus-pre-emptive-strikes/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2025 04:10:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127210</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Photo credit: Reuters. Conceptual clarity is important in any context but especially when it comes to international relations, foreign policy and the initiation of conflict. Recent events in the Middle East have shown once again how clarity in the use of words is often deliberately obfuscated in pursuit of political agendas. Unlike what is being ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>A return to Nature.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2025/06/29/a-return-to-nature/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Jun 2025 02:53:25 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lead]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127198</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Thomas Hobbes wrote his seminal work Leviathan in 1651. In it he describes the world system as it was then as being in &#8220;a state of nature,&#8221; something that some have interpreted as anarchy. However, anarchy has order and purpose. It is not chaos. In fact, if we think of Adam Smith&#8217;s &#8220;invisible hand of ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>The moment of friction.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2024/04/20/the-moment-of-friction/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Apr 2024 02:09:36 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitical Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latest Assessments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127177</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In strategic studies &#8220;friction&#8221; is a term that it is used to describe the moment when military action encounters adversary resistance. &#8220;Friction&#8221; is one of four (along with an unofficial fifth) &#8220;F&#8217;s&#8221; in military strategy, which includes force (kinetic mass), fluidity (of manoeuvre), fog (of battle) as well as uncertainty (of outcomes, which is usually ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>About the Houthi Red Sea Blockage.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2024/01/08/about-the-houthi-red-sea-blockage/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jan 2024 02:27:01 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitical Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houthis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Israel-Palestine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Red Sea]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127158</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Announcement that NZ has joined with 13 other maritime trade-dependent states in warning Houthis in Yemen to cease their attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea (particularly in the Bad-el-Mandeb Strait) raises some finer points embedded in the confrontation. First, there is the question of who is not participating. Even though they are also ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>South America’s Strategic Paradox.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2024/01/05/south-americas-strategic-paradox/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Jan 2024 00:28:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitical Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[People's Republic of China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Region]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Super-Power Presence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PRC-USA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Paradox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127138</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Summary Conventional wisdom believes that increased prosperity brings with it increased security. As individual, group and national material fortunes rise, domestic crime decreases and tensions ease between States. Yet, in South America improved macroeconomic indicators derived from increased trade within and from without the region have not followed convention. Not only has domestic insecurity increased, ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Authoritarian Realism.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2023/10/26/authoritarian-realism/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:47:33 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia Pacific]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitical Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latest Assessments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North Pacific]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Region]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Pacific]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Super-Power Presence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance of Power]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127126</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In International relations, realism refers to the view that States have interests and use relative power capabilities to pursue those interests in an anarchic world order lacking a superordinate power or Leviathan (that is, a condition that Hobbes referred to as the “state of nature’). Conversely, idealism refers to the better angels and perfectibility of ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Geopolitical balancing in the W/SW Pacific.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2023/06/13/geopolitical-balancing-in-the-w-sw-pacific/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jun 2023 22:58:40 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127119</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Last year the People&#8217;s Republic of China (PRC) and the Solomon Islands signed a bilateral security agreement that includes police training and port visits by Chinese security advisors and naval vessels. This includes training in &#8220;crowd control&#8221; and protection of Chinese investments in the Solomons and opens the door to the possibility of forward basing ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<item>
		<title>The return to Big Wars.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2023/03/27/the-return-to-big-wars/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Mar 2023 03:23:15 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[People's Republic of China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Super-Power Presence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PRC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Perspective]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[War]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127101</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[After the Cold War the consensus among Western military strategists was that the era of Big Wars, defined as peer conflict between large states with full spectrum military technologies, was at an end, at least for the foreseeable future. The strategic emphasis shifted to so-called &#8220;small wars&#8221; and low-intensity conflicts where asymmetric warfare would be ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Is NZ foreign policy &#8220;independent?&#8221; (and related issues).</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2022/11/15/is-nz-foreign-policy-independent-and-related-issues/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Nov 2022 01:39:36 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Region]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign Policy]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127083</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[For many years New Zealand elites have claimed to have an “independent” foreign policy, so much so that it has become a truism of NZ politics that transcends the partisan divide in parliament and is a shibboleth of the NZ foreign policy establishment that is parroted by media and pundits alike. But is it a ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Systemic Realignment and the Long Transition.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2022/10/09/systemic-realignment-and-the-long-transition/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Oct 2022 02:57:43 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127068</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&#160; Credit: Ador Bustamante/Gulf News The last few decades have seen a world in increasing turmoil. Technological advances, climate deterioration, sharpening domestic and international political conflict and global pandemics are just some of the hallmarks of the contemporary world moment. In this essay I hope to outline some of the dynamics of this time by ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>The PRC&#8217;s Two Level Game.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2022/06/04/the-prcs-two-level-game/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jun 2022 00:37:28 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia Pacific]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melanesia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Islands Forum]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Region]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[People's Republic of China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Polynesia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Solomon Islands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Pacific]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Super-Power Presence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NZ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PRC]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127061</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Coming on the heels of the recently signed Solomon Islands-PRC bilateral economic and security agreement, the whirlwind tour of the Southwestern Pacific undertaken by PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi has generated much concern in Canberra, Washington DC and Wellington as well as in other Western capitals. Wang and the PRC delegation came to the Southwestern ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Indigenous socialism, with a Chilean face.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2022/01/09/indigenous-socialism-with-a-chilean-face/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Jan 2022 01:12:10 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Country Overview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latest Assessments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Region]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chile]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127040</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Five days before Christmas and 51 years after Salvador Allende was elected as the first socialist president in Chilean history, Gabriel Boric re-made history as the youngest candidate (35) to win that office. A former student activist and Congressman from Punta Arenas in Tierra del Fuego, he first rose to prominence during the 2011 student ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Hate crimes are not always terrorism.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2021/09/12/hate-crimes-are-not-always-terrorism/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Sep 2021 22:36:56 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latest Assessments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Terrorism]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127022</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&#160; Director Paul G. Buchanan has researched and written for over thirty years about terrorism and irregular warfare. He has participated in counter-terrorism analysis and policy development while working in and with US government intelligence and military agencies, including leadership and recruitment profiling. With this background, he offers an assessment of the recent supermarket stabbings ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Nuclear Strategy in a post-deterrence age.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2021/07/12/nuclear-strategy-in-a-post-deterrence-age/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jul 2021 03:46:15 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Super-Power Presence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nuclear deterrence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nuclear strategy]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=126996</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Nuclear weapons are in the news again, this time because recent satellite photos reveal that China is constructing large nuclear missile silo &#8220;farms&#8221; in its Northwestern desert regions. This has occasioned alarm in Western security circles and re-focused attention on the concept of nuclear deterrence. This essay will address some of the basic concepts involved ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>New Zealand&#8217;s foreign policy alignment.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2021/04/29/new-zealands-foreign-policy-alignment/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Apr 2021 03:12:40 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[People's Republic of China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Speeches]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USA]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=126970</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[36th Parallel offers periodic assessments of matters and issues in the news. In this assessment we look at the fallout to a recent speech on foreign policy by its new Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta and explain why the criticism directed at New Zealand over the content of the speech is unwarranted and misguided. &#160; A ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>The Chinese List.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2020/09/19/the-chinese-list/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:25:10 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Region]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[People's Republic of China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weekly Assessment]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=126915</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&#160; News that Zhenhua Data, an arm of China Zhenhua Electronics Group, a subsidiary of the military-connected China Electronic Information Industry Group (CETC), maintains a list of 800 New Zealanders on a “Overseas Key Information Database” that contains personal information on more than 2.4 million foreign individuals, has caused some consternation in Kiwi political circles. ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Research Link: The 42 Group Q1/Q2 2020 Report.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2020/08/23/research-link-the-42-group-q1-q2-2020-report/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Aug 2020 03:18:42 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Guest Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=126907</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[From time to time 36th Parallel features the work of guest analysts. This time we feature the latest offering from The 42 Group, an independent strategic analysis collective based in New Zealand that focuses on military, security and geopolitical analyses. While 36 Parallel is not affiliated with The 42 Group and does not endorse all ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>A crisis of governance.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2020/08/08/a-crisis-of-governance/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Aug 2020 03:39:51 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=126873</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The Port of Beirut warehouse explosion, involving 2.7 kilotons of highly explosive ammonium nitrate negligently stored in an unsecured area, crystalizes in one national tragedy a much wider trend: the crisis and decline of democratic governance world-wide. For a decade Lebanon has been gripped by a terminal national malaise. Its political system, a type of ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Media Link: Director Paul G. Buchanan Standing Places Interview.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2020/04/23/media-link-director-paul-g-buchanan-standing-places-interview/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Apr 2020 07:58:02 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lead]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=126842</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Director Paul G. Buchanan is interviewed on the London-based Standing Places podcast on the politics of pandemics and related issues. Most of the world is now in some form of pandemic lockdown. Everything around us is changing – politics, economics, international relations. How do we navigate the politics of a COVID-19 world? What are the ]]></description>
		
		
		
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