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	<title>Strategic Assessment &#8211; 36th Parallel Assessments (NZ)</title>
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	<description>Pacific regional security intelligence forecasting and assessments</description>
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		<title>Military Extortion as Coercive Diplomacy.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2026/01/07/military-extortion-as-coercive-diplomacy/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2026 21:41:06 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latest Assessments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lead]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Venezuela]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127225</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Source: Anonymous on X.com. The lethal theatre of the absurd that has been the Trump administration’s sabre rattling performances in the Central American basin over the last few months culminated with the military attack on Venezuela and the kidnapping of its president and his wife in the early hours of Saturday morning, Caracas time. The ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>A return to Nature.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2025/06/29/a-return-to-nature/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Jun 2025 02:53:25 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lead]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127198</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Thomas Hobbes wrote his seminal work Leviathan in 1651. In it he describes the world system as it was then as being in &#8220;a state of nature,&#8221; something that some have interpreted as anarchy. However, anarchy has order and purpose. It is not chaos. In fact, if we think of Adam Smith&#8217;s &#8220;invisible hand of ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>The moment of friction.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2024/04/20/the-moment-of-friction/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Apr 2024 02:09:36 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitical Risk]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127177</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In strategic studies &#8220;friction&#8221; is a term that it is used to describe the moment when military action encounters adversary resistance. &#8220;Friction&#8221; is one of four (along with an unofficial fifth) &#8220;F&#8217;s&#8221; in military strategy, which includes force (kinetic mass), fluidity (of manoeuvre), fog (of battle) as well as uncertainty (of outcomes, which is usually ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Authoritarian Realism.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2023/10/26/authoritarian-realism/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:47:33 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia Pacific]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitical Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latest Assessments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North Pacific]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Region]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Pacific]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Super-Power Presence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance of Power]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127126</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In International relations, realism refers to the view that States have interests and use relative power capabilities to pursue those interests in an anarchic world order lacking a superordinate power or Leviathan (that is, a condition that Hobbes referred to as the “state of nature’). Conversely, idealism refers to the better angels and perfectibility of ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>The return to Big Wars.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2023/03/27/the-return-to-big-wars/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Mar 2023 03:23:15 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[People's Republic of China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Super-Power Presence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PRC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Perspective]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[War]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=127101</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[After the Cold War the consensus among Western military strategists was that the era of Big Wars, defined as peer conflict between large states with full spectrum military technologies, was at an end, at least for the foreseeable future. The strategic emphasis shifted to so-called &#8220;small wars&#8221; and low-intensity conflicts where asymmetric warfare would be ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Nuclear Strategy in a post-deterrence age.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2021/07/12/nuclear-strategy-in-a-post-deterrence-age/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jul 2021 03:46:15 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Super-Power Presence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nuclear deterrence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nuclear strategy]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=126996</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Nuclear weapons are in the news again, this time because recent satellite photos reveal that China is constructing large nuclear missile silo &#8220;farms&#8221; in its Northwestern desert regions. This has occasioned alarm in Western security circles and re-focused attention on the concept of nuclear deterrence. This essay will address some of the basic concepts involved ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>New Zealand&#8217;s foreign policy alignment.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2021/04/29/new-zealands-foreign-policy-alignment/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Apr 2021 03:12:40 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[People's Republic of China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Speeches]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USA]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=126970</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[36th Parallel offers periodic assessments of matters and issues in the news. In this assessment we look at the fallout to a recent speech on foreign policy by its new Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta and explain why the criticism directed at New Zealand over the content of the speech is unwarranted and misguided. &#160; A ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Research Link: The 42 Group Q1/Q2 2020 Report.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2020/08/23/research-link-the-42-group-q1-q2-2020-report/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Aug 2020 03:18:42 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Guest Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=126907</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[From time to time 36th Parallel features the work of guest analysts. This time we feature the latest offering from The 42 Group, an independent strategic analysis collective based in New Zealand that focuses on military, security and geopolitical analyses. While 36 Parallel is not affiliated with The 42 Group and does not endorse all ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Media Link: Director Paul G. Buchanan Standing Places Interview.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2020/04/23/media-link-director-paul-g-buchanan-standing-places-interview/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Apr 2020 07:58:02 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lead]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=126842</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Director Paul G. Buchanan is interviewed on the London-based Standing Places podcast on the politics of pandemics and related issues. Most of the world is now in some form of pandemic lockdown. Everything around us is changing – politics, economics, international relations. How do we navigate the politics of a COVID-19 world? What are the ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Iran as a Strategic Actor, Part Two.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2020/02/05/iran-as-a-strategic-actor-part-two/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Feb 2020 00:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Country risk assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lead]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=126831</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Director Paul G. Buchanan has written a two part series on Iran as a strategic actor for the Australian Institute of International Affairs. The analysis is designed to offer an alternative interpretation to views prevalent in the West that see Iran as a rogue and unpredictable player on the world scene. Click here to read ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Iran as a strategic actor (part one)</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2020/01/31/iran-as-a-strategic-actor/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Jan 2020 03:13:19 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Country Overview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Country risk assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lead]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=126823</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Director Paul G. Buchanan has written a two part series on Iran as a strategic actor for the Australian Institute of International Affairs. The analysis is designed to offer an alternative interpretation to views prevalent in the West that see Iran as a rogue and unpredictable player on the world scene. Click here to read ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>An age of protest.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2019/11/15/an-age-of-protest/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Nov 2019 03:56:15 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=126788</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Vandalized monument, Santiago Chile, November 2019. The recent surge in social protests world-wide is quantitatively and qualitatively different than in previous ages. The advent of individualised mass communications technologies and the heterogenous range of demands presented in countries governed by political regimes of different ideological persuasions makes the moment unique from an analytic standpoint and ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>A bridge too far.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2018/11/21/a-bridge-too-far/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Nov 2018 18:43:03 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Region]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[People's Republic of China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Super-Power Presence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia Pacific]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign affairs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peoples Republic of China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political Transition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trend Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States of America]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=121604</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The Labour-led government in New Zealand has settled on a new mantra when it comes to addressing the US-China rivalry. It claims that New Zealand is ideally situated to become a bridge between the two great powers and an honest broker when it comes to their interaction with the Southwest Pacific. This follows the long-held ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Confronting Sharp Power.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2018/10/24/confronting-sharp-power/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Oct 2018 00:12:50 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Reports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign affairs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peoples Republic of China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sharp Power]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=119791</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[International relations is about exercising power to achieve objectives on the global stage. The actors that do so are states, companies, non-governmental organizations or criminal and non-state political actors acting directly or as proxies. The tools they employ have traditionally included hard power, which is the threat and use of diplomatic, economic and military coercion; ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>On intelligence oversight, a broader perspective.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2018/04/22/on-intelligence-oversight-a-broader-perspective/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2018 01:14:12 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Government]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=106443</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Introduction. Director Paul G. Buchanan has been named as a member of the New Zealand Inspector General of Intelligence and Security&#8217;s Reference Group, an external interest intermediation panel. The backdrop to his appointment is that historically the IGIS has been a hollow agency posing as an institutional check on the agencies it is statutorily charged ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Analytic Brief: Influence Operations, Targeted Interventions and Intelligence Gathering: A Primer.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2017/09/23/analytic-brief-influence-operations-targeted-interventions-and-intelligence-gathering-a-primer/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Sep 2017 23:39:22 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[External Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Region]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weekly Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia Pacific]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign affairs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weekly Analysis]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://36th-parallel.com/?p=104178</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Revelations of Chinese influence operations in Australia and New Zealand, and the ongoing sequels to the Russian &#8220;interference&#8221; in the 2016 US election, have caused outcry and concern amongst policy-makers and public alike. Beyond the xenophobic aspects to fears of the spectre of a &#8220;Yellow Peril&#8221; emerging in the Antipodes (a fear that we do ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>Brazil enters the military airlift market, with New Zealand as a target.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2017/04/12/brazil-enters-the-military-airlift-market-with-new-zealand-as-a-target/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Apr 2017 02:25:51 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transport & Logistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia Pacific]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Embraer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign affairs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://36th-parallel.com/?p=97295</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Military aviation has become a global business that transcends strike forces and combat-only platforms. Flexibility in non-military missions such as search and rescue, firefighting and medical evacuation are now added to traditional military airlift missions like troop and weapons transport, airdrop and long-range patrol, surveillance and intelligence gathering. In this analytic brief 36th Parallel Assessments ]]></description>
		
		
		
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		<title>The Importance of Leadership Analysis.</title>
		<link>https://36th-parallel.com/2017/02/14/the-importance-of-leadership-analysis/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Buchanan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Feb 2017 00:12:50 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intelligence]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Assessment]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://36th-parallel.com/?p=94235</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Leadership analysis is a vital yet under-utilised tool in the field of geopolitical risk assessment and strategic analysis. In this brief we explain why it is important, how it is undertaken and what 36th Parallel Assessments can offer clients in this regard. The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency has revived interest in ]]></description>
		
		
		
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