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Analytic Brief: Influence Operations, Targeted Interventions and Intelligence Gathering: A Primer.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Saturday, September 23rd, 2017

Revelations of Chinese influence operations in Australia and New Zealand, and the ongoing sequels to the Russian “interference” in the 2016 US election, have caused outcry and concern amongst policy-makers and public alike. Beyond the xenophobic aspects to fears of the spectre of a “Yellow Peril” emerging in the Antipodes (a fear that we do […]

Analytic Brief: Foreign Policy Realignment, Issue Linkage and Institutional Lag.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, July 15th, 2015

   Sometimes there is more to the picture. Forward. This analytic brief is derived from an ongoing study of South Pacific intelligence communities. There are numerous facets to the study, one of which is intelligence alliances and networks. The brief highlights three undervalued concepts in foreign policy practice and offers some general observations about why […]

Analytic Brief: Political Fratricide.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Monday, November 26th, 2012

Analytic Brief: Political Fratricide. Paul G. Buchanan “Fratricide.” Reza Karimi. (Source: www.iranianpainting.com/fratricide.htm) Analytic Brief: Political Fratricide. Paul G. Buchanan Introduction: In light of recent events involving the New Zealand Labour Party, this brief explores the phenomenon known as political fratricide and its sub-set, party fratricide. Political fratricide is the tearing apart of a political movement or […]

Analytic Brief: Elite Exodus as a political indicator.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, November 20th, 2012

Analytic Brief: Elite Exodus as a political indicator. Analysis – By Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: In an earlier brief 36th Parallel Assessments highlighted the forecasting potential of capital flight. In that brief difference was made between foreign and domestic capital flight as indicators of regime instability. In this brief attention shifts to an overlapping phenomenon that […]

Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy and the Southwestern Pacific.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, September 21st, 2012

Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy in the Southwestern Pacific. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: 36th Parallel Assessments Founding Partner Dr. Paul G. Buchanan has been traveling in the US for a month. He has had an opportunity to observe the US election campaign from both coasts, and in this brief discusses the […]

Analysis: A different sort of BRIC (Australia in comparative perspective).

Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, August 14th, 2012

Analysis: A different type of BRIC (Australia in comparative perspective). In this installment of the 36th Parallel series of analytic briefs, the focus is on Australia compared to other rising middle powers, including three of the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Although it may irk the okkers, Australia can […]

Deconstructing New Zealand Foreign Policy

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, August 1st, 2012

Deconstructing New Zealand Foreign Policy. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: New Zealand’s post-Cold War foreign policy has been characterized by a pragmatic orientation in which matters of principle are balanced against objective assessments of interest. In recent years the commitment to the “principled but pragmatic” foreign policy has come into question, as has […]

Analytic Brief: Managing Policy Fade

Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, July 19th, 2012

Analytic Brief: Managing Policy Fade* From time to time 36th Parallel Assessments offers analytic briefs on subjects of diplomatic, geopolitical and strategic interest. This week’s topic is policy fade. Analysis – By Paul G. Buchanan. Deployment of Fijian soldiers and police as UN peacekeepers after the 2006 military coup in that country is a good […]

Continuity, Crisis and the Process of Political Consolidation in Tonga.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, July 13th, 2012

Continuity, Crisis and the Process of Political Consolidation in Tonga. Weekly Analysis – By Paul G. Buchanan. This week the Tongan Crown Prince Tupouto’a Ulukalala is marrying his cousin. Although there is concern about potential inbreeding, the wedding demonstrates commitment to the royal lineage on the part of recently installed King Tupou VI. The nuptials reaffirm […]

Fiji’s Military Regime Deploys More Personnel To UN Ops Than Australia, Canada, New Zealand Combined

Written by Selwyn Manning on Friday, July 13th, 2012

Fiji’s Military Regime Deploys More Personnel To UN Ops Than Australia, Canada, New Zealand Combined Dispatch/Forecast – by Selwyn Manning. Since the 2006 Fiji coup Commodore Voreqe (Frank) Bainimarama’s military-led government has remained fully engaged with the United Nations while incrementally increasing the number of troops and police it contributes to UN peacekeeping operations to […]

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