Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji. Paul G. Buchanan Change of Guard Ceremony, Government House, Suva. Republic of Fiji Military Forces hand over guardship to Republic of Fiji Police. Photo: Republic of Fiji Military Forces (http://www.rfmf.mil.fj/news/Change%20of%20Guards.html) . Revelations that the Fijian military-bureaucratic regime has rejected important aspects of the draft constitution submitted by [...]
Weekly Assessment
Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, January 17th, 2013
Analytic Brief: Issue Linkage in Foreign Policy.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, December 19th, 2012
Negotiations to establish the Transpacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Program (RCEP), both multinational trade agreements involving Asia-Pacific countries but with the former led by the US and the latter led by China (with each excluding the other from their respective negotiating blocs), brings attention to an important concept in foreign affairs: [...]
Analytic Brief: Political Fratricide.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Monday, November 26th, 2012
Analytic Brief: Political Fratricide. Paul G. Buchanan “Fratricide.” Reza Karimi. (Source: www.iranianpainting.com/fratricide.htm) Analytic Brief: Political Fratricide. Paul G. Buchanan Introduction: In light of recent events involving the New Zealand Labour Party, this brief explores the phenomenon known as political fratricide and its sub-set, party fratricide. Political fratricide is the tearing apart of a political movement or [...]
Assessment Brief: Indian-Australian strategic co-operation in the early 21st century.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, October 31st, 2012
Assessment Brief: Indian-Australian strategic co-operation in the early 21st century. Balaji Chandramohan and Paul G. Buchanan Introduction. In recent years Australia and India have assumed a greater role in international affairs, emerging as regional powers with great power potential. Changes in the international environment, particularly the rise of China as a common source of concern [...]
Paul G. Buchanan interviewed on The Nation regarding potential Chinese cyber espionage and New Zealand’s ability to defend against it.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Sunday, October 14th, 2012
Paul G. Buchanan interviewed on The Nation regarding potential Chinese cyber espionage and New Zealand’s ability to defend against it. This week the US launched a fresh attack on Chinese telecommunication companies. A congressional committee issued a warning to companies in the US, saying Huawei and ZTE may be a front for Chinese spying, and [...]
Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy and the Southwestern Pacific.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, September 21st, 2012
Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy in the Southwestern Pacific. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: 36th Parallel Assessments Founding Partner Dr. Paul G. Buchanan has been traveling in the US for a month. He has had an opportunity to observe the US election campaign from both coasts, and in this brief discusses the [...]
Risk Assessment: Selling sovereignty and declining responsibility. Flags of Convenience in the South Pacific.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, August 28th, 2012
Risk Assessment: Selling sovereignty and declining responsibility. Flags of Convenience in the South Pacific. Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: One of the solutions to the problem of revenue generation in resource-poor states such as the small island countries of the South Pacific is found in the sale of tokens of sovereignty. Tokens [...]
Analysis: A different sort of BRIC (Australia in comparative perspective).
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, August 14th, 2012
Analysis: A different type of BRIC (Australia in comparative perspective). In this installment of the 36th Parallel series of analytic briefs, the focus is on Australia compared to other rising middle powers, including three of the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Although it may irk the okkers, Australia can [...]
Deconstructing New Zealand Foreign Policy
Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, August 1st, 2012
Deconstructing New Zealand Foreign Policy. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: New Zealand’s post-Cold War foreign policy has been characterized by a pragmatic orientation in which matters of principle are balanced against objective assessments of interest. In recent years the commitment to the “principled but pragmatic” foreign policy has come into question, as has [...]
Analytic Brief: Managing Policy Fade
Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, July 19th, 2012
Analytic Brief: Managing Policy Fade* From time to time 36th Parallel Assessments offers analytic briefs on subjects of diplomatic, geopolitical and strategic interest. This week’s topic is policy fade. Analysis – By Paul G. Buchanan. Deployment of Fijian soldiers and police as UN peacekeepers after the 2006 military coup in that country is a good [...]
Continuity, Crisis and the Process of Political Consolidation in Tonga.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, July 13th, 2012
Continuity, Crisis and the Process of Political Consolidation in Tonga. Weekly Analysis – By Paul G. Buchanan. This week the Tongan Crown Prince Tupouto’a Ulukalala is marrying his cousin. Although there is concern about potential inbreeding, the wedding demonstrates commitment to the royal lineage on the part of recently installed King Tupou VI. The nuptials reaffirm [...]
Fiji’s Military Regime Deploys More Personnel To UN Ops Than Australia, Canada, New Zealand Combined
Written by Selwyn Manning on Friday, July 13th, 2012
Fiji’s Military Regime Deploys More Personnel To UN Ops Than Australia, Canada, New Zealand Combined Dispatch/Forecast – by Selwyn Manning. Since the 2006 Fiji coup Commodore Voreqe (Frank) Bainimarama’s military-led government has remained fully engaged with the United Nations while incrementally increasing the number of troops and police it contributes to UN peacekeeping operations to [...]
Analytic Brief: Political Learning and the PNG Elections.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, July 6th, 2012
Analytic Brief: Political Learning and the PNG Elections. From time to time 36th Parallel Assessments publishes broadly conceptual or theoretical essays as in-house background that can be used to guide assessments. These are not meant to be detailed or comprehensive. Instead, they are designed to frame analysis of the subjects under discussion.In this analytic brief the [...]
Intelligence Analytics: Conceptualizing Foreign Aid as an Instrument of Policy
Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, June 21st, 2012
Intelligence Analytics: Conceptualizing Foreign Aid as an Instrument of Policy Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. Announcement that the European Union will direct another 19 million Euros on top of the 785 million Euros (NZ$ 1.3 billion) already allocated to climate change adaptation in the Pacific serves as a good reference point for discussion [...]
Interview: 95bFM’s Simon Maude IVs Selwyn Manning On The Washington Declaration
Written by Selwyn Manning on Thursday, June 21st, 2012
Interview: 95bFM’s Simon Maude IVs Selwyn Manning On New Zealand Signing the USA’s Washington Declaration Military Pact 95bFM The Wire Counter-Clockwise Bulletin – Recorded live on 21/06/12: Main Points – On Wednesday June 20, New Zealand’s Minister of Defence Jonathan Coleman met with the United States’ secretary of defense Leon Panetta at the Pentagon in [...]
Interview: Selwyn Manning IVs Labour’s Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Phil Goff On NZ’s UN Security Council Bid
Written by Selwyn Manning on Tuesday, June 12th, 2012
Interview: Selwyn Manning IVs Labour’s Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Phil Goff On NZ’s UN Security Council Bid Triangle TV, LiveNews.co.nz: Important Points – New Zealand’s former Foreign Affairs Minister Phil Goff reveals that Australia’s former PM Kevin Rudd, abandoned a pledge agreed in 2004 between Canada, New Zealand and Australia, that New Zealand would be next [...]
State of the Nation Brief: Samoa at 50
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, June 12th, 2012
State of the Nation Brief: Samoa at 50 Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. Samoa (also known as Western Samoa) celebrated 50 years of independence from New Zealand last month. Located between 13.35 degrees and 14.9 degrees South and 169.35 and 172.20 degrees West and consisting of nine islands, it is the oldest of [...]
Analysis: New Zealand’s United Nations Security Council Bid
Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, May 31st, 2012
Analysis: New Zealand’s United Nations Security Council Bid. 36th Parallel Assessments – Analysis By Dr Paul G. Buchanan Introduction:On May 24, 2012the foreign ministers of the United States of America and New Zealand met for bilateral meetings after the conclusion of the NATO Summit in Chicago. Afghanistan, Syria and Myanmar were topics of discussion, but [...]
Status of Forces Report Part 2: Military Professionalism in the South Pacific.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, May 25th, 2012
Status of Forces Report Part 2: Military Professionalism in the South Pacific. 36th Parallel Assessment Series – By Paul G. Buchanan Introduction: In Part One of the the Status of Forces series, 36th Parallel Assessments offered an overview of typologies of military forces and civil-military relations. Designed as an introduction to the subject for readers [...]
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Selwyn Manning On NZ Govt’s Pre-Budget Announcements
Written by Selwyn Manning on Friday, May 18th, 2012
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Selwyn Manning On NZ Govt’s Pre-Budget Announcements In the lead up to New Zealand’s budget 2012, Selwyn Manning and Glenn Williams discuss a shift in the New Zealand Government’s ideological agenda. The Government’s recent announcement that it will roll out its performance pay for teachers policy is analysed. Also discussed, is [...]
Weekly Assessment: Intelligence Analytics
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, May 11th, 2012
Weekly Assessment: Intelligence Analytics Assessment – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. From time to time 36th Parallel Assessments will offer intelligence analytic briefs. These are quick, short-hand tools that give a rapid grasp on a given subject. The analytic brief is not meant to be a substitute for a full intelligence assessment. Instead, it serves [...]
Interview: Why Australia & NZ Have Taken A Softly Approach Over Papua New Guinea’s Crisis
Written by Selwyn Manning on Friday, May 4th, 2012
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Selwyn Manning on Why Australia & NZ Have Taken A Softly Approach Over Papua New Guinea’s Crisis Introduction: As Papua New Guinea struggles to maintain order in the face of two clashing political factions, its two southern neighbors Australia and New Zealand are compelled to tread a soft diplomatic line rather [...]
The Papua New Guinea Crisis – Australia and New Zealand’s Challenge
Written by Selwyn Manning on Thursday, May 3rd, 2012
The Papua New Guinea Crisis – Australia and New Zealand’s Challenge Weekly Analysis – By Selwyn Manning. As Papua New Guinea struggles to maintain order in the face of two clashing political factions, its two southern neighbors Australia and New Zealand are compelled to tread a soft diplomatic line rather than risk destroying progressive rapprochement with [...]
36th Parallel Analysis Update – May 1 2012
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, May 1st, 2012
36th Parallel Analysis Update – May 1 2012 36th-Parallel.com’s Dr Paul Buchanan presents the week’s analysis round-up, highlighting top items for the week beginning April 30 to May 6 2012 – including: Chile’s Pacific Naval Presence, and, Is Papua New Guinea A Failing State? See Also: Weekly Analysis: Chile’s Pacific Presence. Weekly Analysis: Is Papua [...]