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Politics

Political Risk and Sustainable Enterprise.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, March 31st, 2016

Boomslang canopy walkway, Kirstenbosch Botanical Gardens, Cape Town, South Africa.   The terms “political risk” and “sustainable enterprise” are not often associated. They should be. The degree of sustainability of an enterprise has direct and long- term cultural, economic, social and political ramifications for the communities in which it is located. The less sustainable the […]

Analytic Brief: Fiji’s strategic pivot.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, January 27th, 2016

  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Fijian Prime Minister Voreque “Frank” Bainimarama. Source: Fiji Ministry of Foreign Affairs Last week Fiji took delivery of a shipment of Russian weapons that were “donated” by Russia pursuant to a bilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed in February 2015. The Fijians say that the weapons are […]

Country Risk Assessment: New Caledonia.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, October 22nd, 2014

    Political risk assessments are an under appreciated aspect of the due diligence undertaken as part of the process of engaging in cultural, diplomatic or economic exchanges in foreign locations. Most political risk analysis, including country risk assessments, are done by large credit rating agencies and insurance underwriters. Some nations provide country risk assessments […]

Analytic Brief: Could Fiji emulate Singapore?

Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, September 26th, 2014

 Fiji Government Buildings, Suva. Photo: Stemoc via Wikimedia Commons.   Fiji represents the latest iteration of a “top-down” transition from authoritarian to elected civilian rule. “Top down” regime transitions are those where the outgoing authoritarian regime controls the process by which elected government is installed, including the timing and terms of elections. The process is […]

Analytic Brief: Transitional Dilemmas.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Sunday, March 16th, 2014

Analytic Brief: Transitional Dilemmas. Paul G. Buchanan Military handover to first constitutional government, Lesotho, June 6 2012. Photo: UN Development Program. Transitions from military-bureaucratic rule have been a salient characteristic of contemporary political dynamics. The desire to return to the barracks and seek legitimation push military-bureaucratic authoritarians towards holding elections as a means of devolving […]

Managing Political Expectations.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, July 18th, 2013

Monthly Analysis: Managing Political Expectations. Paul G. Buchanan “Niccolo Machiavelli (nello studio)” 1884 oil on canvas. Stefano Ussi (1822-1901). Galleria Nazionale d’Arte Moderna, Rome. One of the less scrutinized aspects of politics is the issue of managing political expectations. Except in the most hardened dictatorships, regime and governmental stability rests on popular support. That support […]

Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, January 17th, 2013

Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji. Paul G. Buchanan Change of Guard Ceremony, Government House, Suva. Republic of Fiji Military Forces hand over guardship to Republic of Fiji Police. Photo: Republic of Fiji Military Forces (http://www.rfmf.mil.fj/news/Change%20of%20Guards.html) .   Revelations that the Fijian military-bureaucratic regime has rejected important aspects of the draft constitution submitted by […]

Analytic Brief: Issue Linkage in Foreign Policy.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, December 19th, 2012

Negotiations to establish the Transpacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Program (RCEP), both multinational trade agreements involving Asia-Pacific countries but with the former led by the US and the latter led by China (with each excluding the other from their respective negotiating blocs), brings attention to an important concept in foreign affairs: […]

Analytic Brief: Elite Exodus as a political indicator.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, November 20th, 2012

Analytic Brief: Elite Exodus as a political indicator. Analysis – By Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: In an earlier brief 36th Parallel Assessments highlighted the forecasting potential of capital flight. In that brief difference was made between foreign and domestic capital flight as indicators of regime instability. In this brief attention shifts to an overlapping phenomenon that […]

Interview: Opposition Grows Against New Zealand Government’s Anti-Boat People/Asylum-Seeker Deterrent Legislation

Written by Selwyn Manning on Tuesday, September 11th, 2012

Opposition Grows Against New Zealand Government’s Anti-Boat People/Asylum-Seeker Deterrent Legislation TriangleTV Interview: Selwyn Manning With Tracey Barnett – Asylum Seeker Laws – September 10, 2012. The New Zealand National-led Government has initiated legislation that, if passed through its final stages of Parliament, will detain asylum-seekers should they arrive at the nation’s borders in groups of […]

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