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Forecasts

Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, January 17th, 2013

Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji. Paul G. Buchanan Change of Guard Ceremony, Government House, Suva. Republic of Fiji Military Forces hand over guardship to Republic of Fiji Police. Photo: Republic of Fiji Military Forces (http://www.rfmf.mil.fj/news/Change%20of%20Guards.html) .   Revelations that the Fijian military-bureaucratic regime has rejected important aspects of the draft constitution submitted by [...]

Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy and the Southwestern Pacific.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, September 21st, 2012

romneyspoliticalgamble

Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy in the Southwestern Pacific. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: 36th Parallel Assessments Founding Partner Dr. Paul G. Buchanan has been traveling in the US for a month. He has had an opportunity to observe the US election campaign from both coasts, and in this brief discusses the [...]

Intelligence Analytics: Conceptualizing Foreign Aid as an Instrument of Policy

Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, June 21st, 2012

Bandaid Scoop Image by Lyndon Hood

Intelligence Analytics: Conceptualizing Foreign Aid as an Instrument of Policy Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. Announcement that the European Union will direct  another 19 million Euros on top of the 785 million Euros (NZ$ 1.3 billion) already allocated to climate change adaptation in the Pacific serves as a good reference point for discussion [...]

Interview: Selwyn Manning IVs Labour’s Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Phil Goff On NZ’s UN Security Council Bid

Written by Selwyn Manning on Tuesday, June 12th, 2012

Selwyn-Manning-IVs-Phil-Goff-UNSC-Bid

Interview: Selwyn Manning IVs Labour’s Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Phil Goff On NZ’s UN Security Council Bid Triangle TV, LiveNews.co.nz: Important Points – New Zealand’s former Foreign Affairs Minister Phil Goff reveals that Australia’s former PM Kevin Rudd, abandoned a pledge agreed in 2004 between Canada, New Zealand and Australia, that New Zealand would be next [...]

State of the Nation Brief: Samoa at 50

Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, June 12th, 2012

Samoa-Map

State of the Nation Brief: Samoa at 50 Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. Samoa (also known as Western Samoa) celebrated 50 years of independence from New Zealand last month. Located between 13.35 degrees and 14.9 degrees South and 169.35 and 172.20 degrees West and consisting of nine islands, it is the oldest of [...]

Analysis: New Zealand’s United Nations Security Council Bid

Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, May 31st, 2012

US-NZ-Montage

Analysis: New Zealand’s United Nations Security Council Bid. 36th Parallel Assessments – Analysis By Dr Paul G. Buchanan Introduction:On May 24, 2012the foreign ministers of the United States of America and New Zealand met for bilateral meetings after the conclusion of the NATO Summit in Chicago. Afghanistan, Syria and Myanmar were topics of discussion, but [...]

Status of Forces Report Part 2: Military Professionalism in the South Pacific.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, May 25th, 2012

Image of NZDF personnel, courtesy of NZDF and RNZAF.

Status of Forces Report Part 2: Military Professionalism in the South Pacific. 36th Parallel Assessment Series – By Paul G. Buchanan Introduction: In Part One of the the Status of Forces series, 36th Parallel Assessments offered an overview of typologies of military forces and civil-military relations. Designed as an introduction to the subject for readers [...]

Weekly Assessment: Intelligence Analytics

Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, May 11th, 2012

Aid-Remittance-Tourism

Weekly Assessment: Intelligence Analytics Assessment – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. From time to time 36th Parallel Assessments will offer intelligence analytic briefs. These are quick, short-hand tools that give a rapid grasp on a given subject. The analytic brief is not meant to be a substitute for a full intelligence assessment. Instead, it serves [...]

The Papua New Guinea Crisis – Australia and New Zealand’s Challenge

Written by Selwyn Manning on Thursday, May 3rd, 2012

NZ-Australia-PNG-montage

The Papua New Guinea Crisis – Australia and New Zealand’s Challenge Weekly Analysis – By Selwyn Manning. As Papua New Guinea struggles to maintain order in the face of two clashing political factions, its two southern neighbors Australia and New Zealand are compelled to tread a soft diplomatic line rather than risk destroying progressive rapprochement with [...]

Assessment: South Pacific Regional Architecture

Written by Paul Buchanan on Monday, January 23rd, 2012

36th Parallel Assessment Introduction. Extending roughly from O degrees South to 60 degrees South and 70 degrees West to 160 degrees West, the South Pacific has traditionally been marked by the tyranny of distance: tiny populations on small land masses widely dispersed across a huge expanse of ocean far from metropolitan sources of power and [...]

Assessment: Fiji Country Overview

Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, January 13th, 2012

Fiji Prime Minister, Voreqe Frank Bainimarama. (Image by Selwyn Manning.)

Country Overview (January 2012): Fiji. Futures Forecast – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. The next six months will seecontinued tensions between the Bainimarama regime and its neighbours, Western powers and with the Fijian opposition abroad and at home. Uncertainty will grow around the issue of constitutional reform and election timetabling. There will be no significant [...]

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