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Forecasts

The Importance of Leadership Analysis.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, February 14th, 2017

Leadership analysis is a vital yet under-utilised tool in the field of geopolitical risk assessment and strategic analysis. In this brief we explain why it is important, how it is undertaken and what 36th Parallel Assessments can offer clients in this regard. Source: Pinterest.com The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency has revived […]

Analytic Brief: Fiji’s strategic pivot.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, January 27th, 2016

  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Fijian Prime Minister Voreque “Frank” Bainimarama. Source: Fiji Ministry of Foreign Affairs Last week Fiji took delivery of a shipment of Russian weapons that were “donated” by Russia pursuant to a bilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed in February 2015. The Fijians say that the weapons are […]

Country Risk Assessment: New Caledonia.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, October 22nd, 2014

    Political risk assessments are an under appreciated aspect of the due diligence undertaken as part of the process of engaging in cultural, diplomatic or economic exchanges in foreign locations. Most political risk analysis, including country risk assessments, are done by large credit rating agencies and insurance underwriters. Some nations provide country risk assessments […]

Analytic Brief: Transitional Dilemmas.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Sunday, March 16th, 2014

Analytic Brief: Transitional Dilemmas. Paul G. Buchanan Military handover to first constitutional government, Lesotho, June 6 2012. Photo: UN Development Program. Transitions from military-bureaucratic rule have been a salient characteristic of contemporary political dynamics. The desire to return to the barracks and seek legitimation push military-bureaucratic authoritarians towards holding elections as a means of devolving […]

Analytic Brief: The Transition Tango in Fiji.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, October 3rd, 2013

Analytic Brief: The Transition Tango in Fiji. Paul G. Buchanan Fiji Parliament House. Photo courtesy of Jarred Wilshire, 2006 via Wikimedia Commons.  The move from authoritarian to freely elected rule is a dynamic moment.  It should be seen as a window of opportunity but also one of significant risk. The Fijian political transition scheduled for […]

Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, January 17th, 2013

Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji. Paul G. Buchanan Change of Guard Ceremony, Government House, Suva. Republic of Fiji Military Forces hand over guardship to Republic of Fiji Police. Photo: Republic of Fiji Military Forces (http://www.rfmf.mil.fj/news/Change%20of%20Guards.html) .   Revelations that the Fijian military-bureaucratic regime has rejected important aspects of the draft constitution submitted by […]

Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy and the Southwestern Pacific.

Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, September 21st, 2012

Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy in the Southwestern Pacific. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: 36th Parallel Assessments Founding Partner Dr. Paul G. Buchanan has been traveling in the US for a month. He has had an opportunity to observe the US election campaign from both coasts, and in this brief discusses the […]

Intelligence Analytics: Conceptualizing Foreign Aid as an Instrument of Policy

Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, June 21st, 2012

Intelligence Analytics: Conceptualizing Foreign Aid as an Instrument of Policy Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. Announcement that the European Union will direct  another 19 million Euros on top of the 785 million Euros (NZ$ 1.3 billion) already allocated to climate change adaptation in the Pacific serves as a good reference point for discussion […]

Interview: Selwyn Manning IVs Labour’s Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Phil Goff On NZ’s UN Security Council Bid

Written by Selwyn Manning on Tuesday, June 12th, 2012

Interview: Selwyn Manning IVs Labour’s Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Phil Goff On NZ’s UN Security Council Bid Triangle TV, LiveNews.co.nz: Important Points – New Zealand’s former Foreign Affairs Minister Phil Goff reveals that Australia’s former PM Kevin Rudd, abandoned a pledge agreed in 2004 between Canada, New Zealand and Australia, that New Zealand would be next […]

State of the Nation Brief: Samoa at 50

Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, June 12th, 2012

State of the Nation Brief: Samoa at 50 Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. Samoa (also known as Western Samoa) celebrated 50 years of independence from New Zealand last month. Located between 13.35 degrees and 14.9 degrees South and 169.35 and 172.20 degrees West and consisting of nine islands, it is the oldest of […]

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