Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji. Paul G. Buchanan Change of Guard Ceremony, Government House, Suva. Republic of Fiji Military Forces hand over guardship to Republic of Fiji Police. Photo: Republic of Fiji Military Forces (http://www.rfmf.mil.fj/news/Change%20of%20Guards.html) . Revelations that the Fijian military-bureaucratic regime has rejected important aspects of the draft constitution submitted by [...]
Analysis Assessment
Futures Forecast: A “Guarded” Democracy in Fiji.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, January 17th, 2013
Analytic Brief: Issue Linkage in Foreign Policy.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, December 19th, 2012
Negotiations to establish the Transpacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Program (RCEP), both multinational trade agreements involving Asia-Pacific countries but with the former led by the US and the latter led by China (with each excluding the other from their respective negotiating blocs), brings attention to an important concept in foreign affairs: [...]
Analytic Brief: Political Fratricide.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Monday, November 26th, 2012
Analytic Brief: Political Fratricide. Paul G. Buchanan “Fratricide.” Reza Karimi. (Source: www.iranianpainting.com/fratricide.htm) Analytic Brief: Political Fratricide. Paul G. Buchanan Introduction: In light of recent events involving the New Zealand Labour Party, this brief explores the phenomenon known as political fratricide and its sub-set, party fratricide. Political fratricide is the tearing apart of a political movement or [...]
Analytic Brief: Elite Exodus as a political indicator.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, November 20th, 2012
Analytic Brief: Elite Exodus as a political indicator. Analysis – By Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: In an earlier brief 36th Parallel Assessments highlighted the forecasting potential of capital flight. In that brief difference was made between foreign and domestic capital flight as indicators of regime instability. In this brief attention shifts to an overlapping phenomenon that [...]
Assessment Brief: Indian-Australian strategic co-operation in the early 21st century.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, October 31st, 2012
Assessment Brief: Indian-Australian strategic co-operation in the early 21st century. Balaji Chandramohan and Paul G. Buchanan Introduction. In recent years Australia and India have assumed a greater role in international affairs, emerging as regional powers with great power potential. Changes in the international environment, particularly the rise of China as a common source of concern [...]
RNZ Interview: Paul Buchanan IVed On Radio New Zealand On An Investigation Into The GCSB
Written by Selwyn Manning on Tuesday, September 25th, 2012
RNZ Interview: Paul Buchanan IVed On Radio New Zealand On An Investigation Into The GCSB RNZ Report: With Paul Buchanan – Security and Intelligence Analyst, and Nicky Hager – Investigative Journalist and Author, whose 1996 book “Secret Power – New Zealand’s role in the international spy network” detailed the surveillance system, ECHELON, used at the [...]
Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy and the Southwestern Pacific.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, September 21st, 2012
Analytic Brief: A Romney Foreign Policy in the Southwestern Pacific. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: 36th Parallel Assessments Founding Partner Dr. Paul G. Buchanan has been traveling in the US for a month. He has had an opportunity to observe the US election campaign from both coasts, and in this brief discusses the [...]
Interview: Opposition Grows Against New Zealand Government’s Anti-Boat People/Asylum-Seeker Deterrent Legislation
Written by Selwyn Manning on Tuesday, September 11th, 2012
Opposition Grows Against New Zealand Government’s Anti-Boat People/Asylum-Seeker Deterrent Legislation TriangleTV Interview: Selwyn Manning With Tracey Barnett – Asylum Seeker Laws – September 10, 2012. The New Zealand National-led Government has initiated legislation that, if passed through its final stages of Parliament, will detain asylum-seekers should they arrive at the nation’s borders in groups of [...]
Interview: David Cunliffe & Selwyn Manning Examine Labour’s Economic Development Plan For New Zealand
Written by Selwyn Manning on Tuesday, September 4th, 2012
David Cunliffe & Selwyn Manning Examine Labour’s Economic Development Plan For New Zealand David-Cunliffe Interview With Selwyn Manning – TriTV – Beatson Interview – September 03 2012. In this interview between Selwyn Manning and Labour’s spokesperson for Economic Development, David Cunliffe, Labour’s economic plan for New Zealand is examined. What would a Labour-led government do [...]
Risk Assessment: Selling sovereignty and declining responsibility. Flags of Convenience in the South Pacific.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, August 28th, 2012
Risk Assessment: Selling sovereignty and declining responsibility. Flags of Convenience in the South Pacific. Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: One of the solutions to the problem of revenue generation in resource-poor states such as the small island countries of the South Pacific is found in the sale of tokens of sovereignty. Tokens [...]
Afghanistan: Beefing Up In Order To Leave
Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, August 23rd, 2012
Afghanistan: Beefing Up In Order To Leave Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. In the wake of the most recent NZDF deaths in Bamiyan Province, the New Zealand Prime Minister has decided to accelerate the timetable for withdrawal of NZDF from the Bamiyan Provincial Reconstruction Team to April 2013. After that the PRT will [...]
Analysis: A different sort of BRIC (Australia in comparative perspective).
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, August 14th, 2012
Analysis: A different type of BRIC (Australia in comparative perspective). In this installment of the 36th Parallel series of analytic briefs, the focus is on Australia compared to other rising middle powers, including three of the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Although it may irk the okkers, Australia can [...]
Selwyn Manning Interviews Coalition For Democracy In Fiji’s Nik Naidu on Fiji’s Slow Walk Back To Democracy
Written by Selwyn Manning on Tuesday, August 7th, 2012
Fiji: Selwyn Manning Interviews Coalition For Democracy In Fiji’s Nik Naidu on Fiji’s Slow Walk Back To Democracy This Week: Selwyn Manning interviews Nik Naidu on Fiji’s Slow Walk Back To Democracy – Beatson Interview, Triangle TV, August 6 2012. Nothing is ever very predictable about the political situation in Fiji – except its unpredictability. [...]
The Pacific Fibre Issue – Has The US Gone Too Far?
Written by Selwyn Manning on Thursday, August 2nd, 2012
The Pacific Fibre Issue – Has The US Gone Too Far? Analysis – By Selwyn Manning. On Thursday morning Interest.co.nz‘s Alex Tarrant reported that the Kiwi Pacific Fibre cable project was sunk by US fears about Chinese investment, and espionage. Interest.co.nz‘s main contact was New Zealand-based invester Rod Drury who said: “It was made clear [...]
Deconstructing New Zealand Foreign Policy
Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, August 1st, 2012
Deconstructing New Zealand Foreign Policy. Analysis – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. Introduction: New Zealand’s post-Cold War foreign policy has been characterized by a pragmatic orientation in which matters of principle are balanced against objective assessments of interest. In recent years the commitment to the “principled but pragmatic” foreign policy has come into question, as has [...]
Alleged Canadian Spy Breached Five Eyes Echelon Intelligence
Written by 36th Parallel on Thursday, July 26th, 2012
Alleged Canadian Spy Breached Five Eyes Echelon Intelligence Major Intelligence Breach: News reports have revealed that a Canadian naval officer has been arrested on security charges where it is alleged he sold military-related signals intelligence to Russian spies. The intelligence is believed to include information circulated between the US, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand [...]
Parliamentary Network on Nuclear Disarmament (PNND) Visit to North Korea (DPRK) – Post Visit Report
Written by 36th Parallel on Wednesday, July 25th, 2012
Parliamentary Network on Nuclear Disarmament (PNND) Visit to North Korea (DPRK) – Post Visit Report Report by and courtesy of Matt Robson. See Also: Speech to Korea Association of New Zealand. ******* REPORT FROM MATT ROBSON- REPRESENTATIVE OF PARLIAMENTARIANS NETWORK FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT (PNND) and BOARD MEMBER OF AOTEAROA LAWYERS FOR PEACE (ALP) ON: FACT-FINDING [...]
Parliamentary Network on Nuclear Disarmament Visit to North Korea – Post Visit Speech
Written by 36th Parallel on Wednesday, July 25th, 2012
Parliamentary Network on Nuclear Disarmament (PNND) Visit to North Korea (DPRK) – Post Visit Speech Speech by and courtesy of Matt Robson. See Also: Post North Korea Visit Report. ******* HON MATTHEW ROBSON, FORMER MINISTER OF DISARMAMENT AND ARMS CONTROL OF NEW ZEALAND SPEECH TO KOREAN ASSOCIATION OF NEW ZEALAND FAIRWAY LODGE TAKAPUNA AUCKLAND 05 [...]
Dispatch: The Weird Twist Underlying the NZSIS Raid on Fiji’s Pro-Democracy Movement
Written by Selwyn Manning on Thursday, July 19th, 2012
The Weird Twist Underlying the NZSIS Raid on Fiji’s Pro-Democracy Movement Dispatch – By Selwyn Manning. Yesterday veteran Pacific journalist Mike Field broke this story where New Zealand’s Security Intelligence Service raided a Mt Albert dairy (grocery) owned by former Fiji Cabinet minister Rejesh Singh. A SIS officer, accompanied by three police officers – presumably [...]
Analytic Brief: Managing Policy Fade
Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, July 19th, 2012
Analytic Brief: Managing Policy Fade* From time to time 36th Parallel Assessments offers analytic briefs on subjects of diplomatic, geopolitical and strategic interest. This week’s topic is policy fade. Analysis – By Paul G. Buchanan. Deployment of Fijian soldiers and police as UN peacekeepers after the 2006 military coup in that country is a good [...]
TriTV Interview – Selwyn Manning IVs Matt Robson on Foreign Affairs and the Value of Aid
Written by Selwyn Manning on Tuesday, July 17th, 2012
TriTV Interview – Selwyn Manning IVs Matt Robson on Foreign Affairs and the Value of Aid Beatson Interview – Selwyn Manning IVs Matt Robson on foreign affairs, New Zealand’s independent brand, and the value of development aid. Matt Robson is a former New Zealand Associate Minister of Foreign Affairs, and a minister responsible for NZAid [...]
Continuity, Crisis and the Process of Political Consolidation in Tonga.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, July 13th, 2012
Continuity, Crisis and the Process of Political Consolidation in Tonga. Weekly Analysis – By Paul G. Buchanan. This week the Tongan Crown Prince Tupouto’a Ulukalala is marrying his cousin. Although there is concern about potential inbreeding, the wedding demonstrates commitment to the royal lineage on the part of recently installed King Tupou VI. The nuptials reaffirm [...]
Fiji’s Military Regime Deploys More Personnel To UN Ops Than Australia, Canada, New Zealand Combined
Written by Selwyn Manning on Friday, July 13th, 2012
Fiji’s Military Regime Deploys More Personnel To UN Ops Than Australia, Canada, New Zealand Combined Dispatch/Forecast – by Selwyn Manning. Since the 2006 Fiji coup Commodore Voreqe (Frank) Bainimarama’s military-led government has remained fully engaged with the United Nations while incrementally increasing the number of troops and police it contributes to UN peacekeeping operations to [...]
Analytic Brief: Political Learning and the PNG Elections.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, July 6th, 2012
Analytic Brief: Political Learning and the PNG Elections. From time to time 36th Parallel Assessments publishes broadly conceptual or theoretical essays as in-house background that can be used to guide assessments. These are not meant to be detailed or comprehensive. Instead, they are designed to frame analysis of the subjects under discussion.In this analytic brief the [...]
Assessment: Partners But Not Allies – New Zealand and the US Sign The Washington Declaration
Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, June 27th, 2012
Assessment: Partners But Not Allies – New Zealand and the US Sign The Washington Declaration Assessment/Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. On June 20 New Zealand Defense Minister Jonathan Coleman and US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta signed the Washington Declaration, which specifies priority areas of cooperation between the militaries of both countries.The Washington Declaration [...]
Intelligence Analytics: Conceptualizing Foreign Aid as an Instrument of Policy
Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, June 21st, 2012
Intelligence Analytics: Conceptualizing Foreign Aid as an Instrument of Policy Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. Announcement that the European Union will direct another 19 million Euros on top of the 785 million Euros (NZ$ 1.3 billion) already allocated to climate change adaptation in the Pacific serves as a good reference point for discussion [...]
Interview: 95bFM’s Simon Maude IVs Selwyn Manning On The Washington Declaration
Written by Selwyn Manning on Thursday, June 21st, 2012
Interview: 95bFM’s Simon Maude IVs Selwyn Manning On New Zealand Signing the USA’s Washington Declaration Military Pact 95bFM The Wire Counter-Clockwise Bulletin – Recorded live on 21/06/12: Main Points – On Wednesday June 20, New Zealand’s Minister of Defence Jonathan Coleman met with the United States’ secretary of defense Leon Panetta at the Pentagon in [...]
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Paul Buchanan On Defense Strategy & the Use Of Drones
Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, June 13th, 2012
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Paul Buchanan On Defense Strategy & the Use Of Drones How effective are drones in assisting military forces in hostile conflict? And what considerations are given to the legalities of the use of drones, is it ethical, or indeed is it moral to use unmanned drones? Paul Buchanan and Glenn Williams [...]
Interview: Selwyn Manning IVs Labour’s Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Phil Goff On NZ’s UN Security Council Bid
Written by Selwyn Manning on Tuesday, June 12th, 2012
Interview: Selwyn Manning IVs Labour’s Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Phil Goff On NZ’s UN Security Council Bid Triangle TV, LiveNews.co.nz: Important Points – New Zealand’s former Foreign Affairs Minister Phil Goff reveals that Australia’s former PM Kevin Rudd, abandoned a pledge agreed in 2004 between Canada, New Zealand and Australia, that New Zealand would be next [...]
State of the Nation Brief: Samoa at 50
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, June 12th, 2012
State of the Nation Brief: Samoa at 50 Analysis – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. Samoa (also known as Western Samoa) celebrated 50 years of independence from New Zealand last month. Located between 13.35 degrees and 14.9 degrees South and 169.35 and 172.20 degrees West and consisting of nine islands, it is the oldest of [...]
Interview: 95bFM’s Simon Maude IVs Selwyn Manning On The Implications Of New Zealand Signing A NATO Security Pact
Written by Selwyn Manning on Thursday, June 7th, 2012
Interview: 95bFM’s Simon Maude IVs Selwyn Manning On The Implications Of New Zealand Signing A NATO Security Pact 95bFM’s The Wire – Recorded live on 7/06/12: Selwyn Manning & Simon Maude discuss the implications of New Zealand signing a NATO security pact titled Individual Partnership Cooperation Programme (IPCP). Background: This week New Zealand Prime Minister [...]
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Paul Buchanan on New Zealand’s Security Council Bid
Written by Paul Buchanan on Wednesday, June 6th, 2012
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Paul Buchanan on New Zealand’s Security Council Bid 36th-Parallel.com’s Dr Paul Buchanan joins Glenn Williams to discuss New Zealand’s bid to be come a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Will New Zealand be successful in its bid? Is the United States backing the campaign? If so, is this [...]
Analysis: New Zealand’s United Nations Security Council Bid
Written by Paul Buchanan on Thursday, May 31st, 2012
Analysis: New Zealand’s United Nations Security Council Bid. 36th Parallel Assessments – Analysis By Dr Paul G. Buchanan Introduction:On May 24, 2012the foreign ministers of the United States of America and New Zealand met for bilateral meetings after the conclusion of the NATO Summit in Chicago. Afghanistan, Syria and Myanmar were topics of discussion, but [...]
Status of Forces Report Part 2: Military Professionalism in the South Pacific.
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, May 25th, 2012
Status of Forces Report Part 2: Military Professionalism in the South Pacific. 36th Parallel Assessment Series – By Paul G. Buchanan Introduction: In Part One of the the Status of Forces series, 36th Parallel Assessments offered an overview of typologies of military forces and civil-military relations. Designed as an introduction to the subject for readers [...]
Beatson Interview – Selwyn Manning IVs Henry Yamo on Papua New Guinea Instability
Written by 36th Parallel on Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012
Beatson Interview – Selwyn Manning IVs Henry Yamo on Papua New Guinea Instability Text Report by 36th Parallel & Pacific.Scoop.co.nz: Peter O’Neill and his supporters have defiantly declared their caretaker government in charge in the in lead-up to next month’s Papua New Guinea general election despite his administration being declared illegal by the Supreme Court. [...]
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Paul Buchanan on the South China Sea Territorial Tensions
Written by 36th Parallel on Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Paul Buchanan on the South China Sea Territorial Tensions Analysis: Geopolitics and strategic balancing in the South China Sea. China has been asserting its territorial claims very aggressively and the United States and associated South East Asian countries have responded. Most recently China and the Philippines have clashed over the Scarborough [...]
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Selwyn Manning On NZ Govt’s Pre-Budget Announcements
Written by Selwyn Manning on Friday, May 18th, 2012
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Selwyn Manning On NZ Govt’s Pre-Budget Announcements In the lead up to New Zealand’s budget 2012, Selwyn Manning and Glenn Williams discuss a shift in the New Zealand Government’s ideological agenda. The Government’s recent announcement that it will roll out its performance pay for teachers policy is analysed. Also discussed, is [...]
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Paul Buchanan on the Obama vs Romney US Campaign
Written by 36th Parallel on Tuesday, May 15th, 2012
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Paul Buchanan on the Obama vs Romney US Campaign Paul Buchanan discusses United States president Barack Obama’s message on gay marriage, the Republican Party’s Mitt Romney’s response, and the build up to the US election in November. The bottom line is social issues/cultural wars versus pocketbook issues.
Interview: Radio New Zealand’s Chris Laidlaw IVs Paul Buchanan on Drones
Written by 36th Parallel on Tuesday, May 15th, 2012
Interview: Radio New Zealand’s Chris Laidlaw IVs Paul Buchanan on Drones Radio New Zealand intro: This week we hear from professor Noel Sharkey about the development of fully autonomous drones, blogger Yousef Aljamal about life under the drones in the Gaza strip, and defence analyst Paul Buchanan will talk us through the strategic implications of [...]
Weekly Assessment: Intelligence Analytics
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, May 11th, 2012
Weekly Assessment: Intelligence Analytics Assessment – By Dr. Paul G. Buchanan. From time to time 36th Parallel Assessments will offer intelligence analytic briefs. These are quick, short-hand tools that give a rapid grasp on a given subject. The analytic brief is not meant to be a substitute for a full intelligence assessment. Instead, it serves [...]
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Paul Buchanan On France, Greece Elections
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, May 8th, 2012
The elections in France and Greece represent a watershed moment in Europe External Powers – Video and Written Analysis by Dr Paul Buchanan. Paul Buchanan is interviewed by Glenn Williams on the recent election wins for those who advocate nationalistic sovereignties in France and in Greece. What can we expect from the new governments? Will [...]
Interview: Why Australia & NZ Have Taken A Softly Approach Over Papua New Guinea’s Crisis
Written by Selwyn Manning on Friday, May 4th, 2012
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Selwyn Manning on Why Australia & NZ Have Taken A Softly Approach Over Papua New Guinea’s Crisis Introduction: As Papua New Guinea struggles to maintain order in the face of two clashing political factions, its two southern neighbors Australia and New Zealand are compelled to tread a soft diplomatic line rather [...]
The Papua New Guinea Crisis – Australia and New Zealand’s Challenge
Written by Selwyn Manning on Thursday, May 3rd, 2012
The Papua New Guinea Crisis – Australia and New Zealand’s Challenge Weekly Analysis – By Selwyn Manning. As Papua New Guinea struggles to maintain order in the face of two clashing political factions, its two southern neighbors Australia and New Zealand are compelled to tread a soft diplomatic line rather than risk destroying progressive rapprochement with [...]
36th Parallel Analysis Update – May 1 2012
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, May 1st, 2012
36th Parallel Analysis Update – May 1 2012 36th-Parallel.com’s Dr Paul Buchanan presents the week’s analysis round-up, highlighting top items for the week beginning April 30 to May 6 2012 – including: Chile’s Pacific Naval Presence, and, Is Papua New Guinea A Failing State? See Also: Weekly Analysis: Chile’s Pacific Presence. Weekly Analysis: Is Papua [...]
Interview: Glenn Williams IVs Paul Buchanan on the Problems of Pulling Out of Afghanistan
Written by Selwyn Manning on Tuesday, May 1st, 2012
Eye on the World: Paul Buchanan & Glenn Williams on Afghanistan and the Problems Of Pulling Out 36th-Parallel.com‘s Paul Buchanan joins Glenn Williams to discuss the problems New Zealand and Australia faces while preparing to pull soldiers out of Afghanistan. Paul Buchanan discusses how a recent visit to Afghanistan’s Bamiyan province by New Zealand’s Minister [...]
Assessment: South Pacific Regional Architecture
Written by Paul Buchanan on Monday, January 23rd, 2012
36th Parallel Assessment Introduction. Extending roughly from O degrees South to 60 degrees South and 70 degrees West to 160 degrees West, the South Pacific has traditionally been marked by the tyranny of distance: tiny populations on small land masses widely dispersed across a huge expanse of ocean far from metropolitan sources of power and [...]
Assessment: Fiji Country Overview
Written by Paul Buchanan on Friday, January 13th, 2012
Country Overview (January 2012): Fiji. Futures Forecast – By Dr Paul G. Buchanan. The next six months will seecontinued tensions between the Bainimarama regime and its neighbours, Western powers and with the Fijian opposition abroad and at home. Uncertainty will grow around the issue of constitutional reform and election timetabling. There will be no significant [...]
Leaked Cables Detail Evolution Of Post 9/11 Foreign Policy
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, December 21st, 2010
36th Parallel External Report, Tuesday, 21 December 2010 – Wikileaks publication of US diplomatic correspondence about New Zealand foreign policy paints an interesting picture of the evolution of the country’s approach to international relations in the post 9/11 era, set against the backdrop of the chill in relations between the two states caused by the [...]
New Zealand’s Coming Melian Dilemma
Written by Paul Buchanan on Tuesday, September 14th, 2010
36th Parallel External Report, 14 September 2010 – Paul Buchanan writes that New Zealand’s contemporary foreign policy approach is to straddle the fence between East and West. Economically, New Zealand sees its future rooted in Asia, with China being its primary partner. A dilemma is developing… Analysis – By Paul G. Buchanan. First published at [...]
Fiji An Icon Of Pacific Constitutional Instability
Written by Selwyn Manning on Wednesday, November 1st, 2006
36th Parallel External Report, 01 November 2006 – Why Fiji’s Army Believes It Has A Right To Overthrow Its Government – Last week, while covering the Forum in Nadi, Fiji, Scoop sought the views of Fijians as to why their military was threatening to over-throw the Fijian government. Should the demands of Fiji’s military commander [...]